Liverpool go into Sunday’s Premier League showdown with Manchester City as slight favourites, according to Opta’s predictive model, despite an up-and-down season so far.
The Opta supercomputer gives the Reds a 43 per cent chance of winning at Anfield, compared to 30.3 per cent for City, with a draw rated at 26.7 per cent. That assessment is driven less by emotion and more by long-standing patterns that continue to favour Liverpool whenever this fixture is played on Merseyside.
Anfield factor still tilts the balance
Liverpool have been beaten just once in their last 22 Premier League home meetings with Manchester City, winning 14 and drawing seven in that spell. That lone defeat came in February 2021, when City claimed their only league win at Anfield during a match played behind closed doors, even as Liverpool were reigning champions.
Those numbers still carry weight, particularly with Pep Guardiola’s side once again heading to a ground that has consistently proven difficult for them. Erling Haaland’s record adds to that narrative. The Norwegian, now 25, has failed to score in all three of his Premier League away games against Liverpool, making Anfield one of only two stadiums where he has yet to find the net in the competition.
Former Liverpool forward Peter Crouch has also struggled to separate the two teams, predicting a high-scoring draw and tipping Hugo Ekitike to score first when speaking on That Peter Crouch Podcast.
Form points to a resilient Liverpool
City’s challenge could be made tougher by the potential absence of Bernardo Silva, with Guardiola admitting the midfielder remains an “incredible doubt” due to a back muscle issue.
While Liverpool’s season has lacked consistency overall, their form since mid-October has been far more stable. From matchday 13 onwards, no Premier League side has suffered fewer defeats, with Arne Slot’s team losing just once in their last 12 league matches.
That resilience was on display in the recent 4–1 victory over Newcastle United, when Liverpool recovered from an early setback to assert control through their attacking quality. Florian Wirtz is growing in influence with each game, while Hugo Ekitike has become increasingly clinical in front of goal.
Since December, Wirtz has been involved in more goals across all competitions than any other Premier League player. Ekitike, meanwhile, has reached double figures in league goals at a younger age than any Liverpool player since Michael Owen.
Those attacking trends are particularly significant against a Manchester City side that has yet to score a second-half league goal in 2026 and has shown signs of fragility after the interval. Although City remain a formidable opponent and sit higher in the table, they trail Arsenal by six points and are under pressure to keep up.
Liverpool arrive with growing confidence, a formidable home record in this fixture, and the statistical backing to explain why Opta make them marginal favourites. It guarantees nothing on Sunday, but it does help explain why optimism is quietly building ahead of one of the Premier League’s marquee rivalries.
